2026 Midterm Results and What They Mean For Our Industry

PUBLIC AFFAIRS UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION

The 2026 elections represent the 12th “change” election out of the 14 held since 2000. Voters are still angry and frustrated about the cost of living, and neither party has found a way to consistently address it. This time, they handed Democrats a sweeping win that reached well beyond Washington, into governors’ mansions and state legislatures that Republicans have controlled for years.  While the transition in power is stark, our agenda and mission remains the same. This memo outlines the status, substance, and likely course of the road ahead.

WHAT HAPPENED

Congress

Democrats will control both chambers in January. In the Senate, Democrats flipped seven Republican-held seats (Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas) and held Georgia and Michigan, giving them at least 54 seats with two races still uncalled. In the House, Democrats have won at least 231 seats with many races still being counted, and NBC News projects they will finish near 258, the largest Democratic majority since 1993. That is a commanding position in both chambers, but still short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster.

 Congressional Democrats now face a balancing act. Their base, and many of their newly elected members, will expect aggressive oversight of the Administration, and new committee chairs will have subpoena power and every incentive to use it. But Democrats also know that their 2028 prospects depend on showing voters they can govern, not just investigate. Leadership will need to thread the needle between holding hearings and passing bills that deliver on the affordability promises that won them the majority. How they strike that balance will determine how much legislative bandwidth is left for the issues that matter to restaurants, and it gives us an opening to offer workable, bipartisan solutions they can point to as wins.

 The states

The wave ran deep down the ballot. Democrats flipped governorships in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas, and will hold a majority of governors’ offices for the first time in 16 years. They flipped both chambers in Wisconsin, as well as the Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina houses, and broke the Republican supermajority in Florida. Democrats have new trifectas in Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin, and possibly Pennsylvania and Arizona. Republican trifectas were broken in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, and changes in power in the New Hampshire and Texas legislatures are very possible.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR RESTAURANTS

This is a fundamentally different landscape than the one we have worked in for the last two years, and it brings both opportunities and challenges for our industry. Some of the hardest fights will come in the states, where new majorities will move fast. But new majorities also mean new members, new committee chairs and new leaders who are looking for partners on affordability, workforce and small business. Restaurants are where those conversations happen every day, and the National Restaurant Association is ready to lead.

Congressional Democrats ran and won on a promise to address affordability, and that message will shape their agenda in 2027. Restaurant issues are consumer affordability issues, and we will appropriately advance an agenda that reflects that.  Restaurants are on the front lines of affordability every day, for the guests trying to stretch a family budget and for the millions of employees building their careers in our industry. Policies that lower costs for restaurants, from swipe fees to tariff changes are affordability policies, and we will make that case to the new majority.

 Over the coming weeks, we will engage directly with our national members and the Advocacy Strategy Committee to set our 2027 priorities, so our agenda reflects both the new political reality and what you are seeing in your own businesses. We will also release a letter from National Restaurant Association President and CEO Michelle Korsmo to the incoming congressional leadership laying out the industry’s 2027 agenda.

 ISSUES TO WATCH IN WASHINGTON

With comfortable majorities, Democrats will lean on budget reconciliation to advance their priorities and on their investigative powers to check the Administration. But the issues that matter most to restaurants may come down to a different coalition entirely.

Minimum wage and the tip credit

Expect the Raise the Wage Act to be near the top of the agenda for both chambers. The bill would raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $17 in annual steps over five years, then index it to median wage growth every year after that. It would also eliminate the tip credit: the tipped cash wage would jump from $2.13 to $6 when the law takes effect and rise to $17 over six years, after which tipped employees would be paid the full minimum wage. Expect sponsors to update those figures when the bill is reintroduced in January. The open question is whether the populist wing of the Republican Party, which has floated its own minimum wage increase, will join with congressional Democrats, and whether President Trump would sign on. If that coalition comes together, it would be the most serious threat to the tip credit at the federal level in a generation. Protecting the tip credit will remain a top priority.

 Labor policy

That same populist wing has already shown a willingness to work with Democrats on labor issues, most notably the Faster Labor Contracts Act, which would put deadlines on first-contract bargaining after a union is certified and send stalled talks to mediation and binding arbitration. With Democrats in charge of both chambers, bipartisan labor bills that once stalled now have a real path, and we expect more of them in 2027.

 Immigration reform

This could be one of the real opportunities of the new Congress. Restaurants continue to face serious workforce shortages, and a Democratic Congress working with a President who wants legislative wins before his term ends could reopen the door to reforms that have been stalled for years. A legal, stable workforce is essential to our industry, and we will be ready to help shape any package that moves. In a post-election interview, President Trump specifically cited “immigration” as potential area of collaboration with Democrats.

Swipe fee reform. 

In the short term, this is a challenge. Our two lead Senate champions on the Credit Card Competition Act will not be back: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring, and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) lost his reelection bid. We will need to rebuild our bench of sponsors in both parties. We have been working with Senator Peter Welch (D-VT) who intends to lead the issue in the Senate and work to include it into the Democrats’ affordability agenda.  Over the longer term,  the rise of populists on both sides of the aisle, many of them eager to take on big banks and the fees that hit Main Street businesses, gives us a promising base of new allies.

ISSUES TO WATCH IN THE STATES

Most of the new policymaking will happen in state capitols, especially in the new Democratic trifectas. History tells us that when a party takes unified control after years out of power, it moves quickly on labor and employment policy. Here is what we are watching:

• Tip credit and minimum wage. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were already on our list of likely 2027 tip credit battlegrounds. New trifectas there raise the stakes considerably.  Pennsylvania and Wisconsin currently follow the federal minimum wage of $7.25, and new Democratic leadership will make the minimum wage conversation a priority in 2027.
• Wage preemption. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all preempt local wage ordinances today. Expect pressure to repeal those protections and open the door to city-by-city wage mandates.
• Paid leave and scheduling. New state paid leave programs and predictive scheduling mandates are likely early targets in states like Minnesota, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
• Medicaid “fair share” penalties. More states are likely to follow New Jersey in charging large employers for workers enrolled in Medicaid. The Restaurant Law Center is already challenging New Jersey’s law in court.  With expanded Democratic majorities or new Democratic supermajorities in certain states, this issue is likely to see additional attention in 2027.
• Mayors: with the election of Janeese Lewis George in D.C. and the potential election of Nithya Ramen in Los Angeles (currently leading), several of the largest metro areas in the country are now led by DSA or DSA-aligned mayors.
• Attorneys general. More aggressive attorneys general in states that shifted toward Democrats will put pricing, junk fees, and wage-and-hour enforcement under a brighter spotlight.

ELECTION RECAP FROM ICE MILLER, LLP

Statehouse: Results and What Comes Next

Tuesday's election brought significant changes to Indiana's political landscape, with Democrats making substantial gains statewide, particularly in suburban communities. Republicans retained control of both chambers of the General Assembly, but Democrats broke the House supermajority with a net gain of 16 seats. Two races still too close to call could raise that to a net gain of 18 seats. In the State Senate, Democrats have a confirmed net gain of 4 seats and an anticipated net gain of 5 seats once three races are finalized. Other major developments included Democratic victories in two statewide races, Secretary of State and State Comptroller, and several unexpected defeats of longtime legislators. 

While most results are becoming clear, a few races remain close. Below is our initial look at the results and what they could mean for Indiana government heading into 2027. All results are preliminary until certified.

Indiana General Assembly 

Democrats Break Republican Supermajority in the House

Republicans entered Election Day with a 70-30 majority in the Indiana House of Representatives, but Democrats picked up enough seats to end the Republican supermajority for the first time in 14 years. Republicans will retain control of the chamber, although the final party breakdown remains subject to the outcome of several outstanding races. 

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the evening came in House District 37, where Democrat Lauren Cole defeated House Speaker Todd Huston. Huston has represented the Fishers-area district since 2012 and served as Speaker since 2020. With the defeat of Representative Greg Steurwald in House District 40, Representative Lehman is the only member of caucus leadership to win reelection.  

Several other Republican incumbents also lost their reelection bids or were trailing in unofficial returns Wednesday morning. Among the notable results: 

• House District 4: Democrat Ryan Kominakis defeated longtime Representative Ed Soliday, who chairs the House Utilities, Energy and Telecommunications Committee. 

• House District 24: Democrat Racheal Bleicher defeated Representative Hunter Smith. 

• House District 25: Democrat Tiffany Stoner defeated Representative Becky Cash in a rematch of their extremely close 2024 race, which Cash won by just 64 votes. 

• House District 36: Democrat Kimberly Townsend defeated Representative Kyle Pierce. 

• House District 39: Democrat Lindsay Gramlich defeated Representative Danny Lopez. 

• House District 40: Democrat William Colteryahn defeated longtime Representative Greg Steuerwald, the House Republican Caucus Chair. 

• House District 62: Democrat Amy Huffman Oliver defeated Representative Dave Hall. 

• House District 72: Democrat Michele Henry defeated Republican Darrell Neeley in an open race to replace Representative Ed Clere who did not seek re-election. 

• House District 88: Democrat Stephanie Yocum was leading Representative Chris Jeter in a closely watched race. 

• House District 90:  Democrat David Boyd defeated Representative Andrew Ireland.  

• House District 93: Democrat Eva Rosberg and Representative Julie McGuire were also involved in a closely watched contest, with conflicting preliminary returns still requiring confirmation. 

The House results are particularly consequential for the 2027 legislative session. With Republicans falling below the 67-member threshold needed to establish a quorum on their own, House Democrats will have additional procedural leverage. Republicans will still have the votes needed to pass ordinary legislation, but the smaller majority will change how leadership manages the chamber.

Senate Republicans Retain Supermajority Despite Democratic Gains

Democrats also picked up seats in the Indiana Senate, although Republicans retained their two-thirds supermajority. 

• Senate District 1: Scott Houldieson defeated Trevor De Vries. 

• Senate District 15: Senator Liz Brown of Fort Wayne was defeated by Democrat Julie McGill. 

• Senate District 22: Longtime Senator Ron Alting of Lafayette lost to Democrat Natasha Baker.  

• Senate District 29: Democrat Kristina Moorhead also defeated former Republican State Senator John Ruckelshaus, retaining the seat currently held by J.D. Ford, who did not seek reelection to the State Senate as he defeated U.S. Congresswoman Victoria Spartz. 

• Senate District 31: Marion County Sheriff Kerry Forestal defeated Juanita Albright. 

One race that was much closer than expected was Senate District 45, where President Pro Tempore-elect Chris Garten emerged from Election Night with a narrow lead over Democrat Nick Marshall. Unofficial returns showed Garten ahead by 297 votes, with approximately 96% reporting. Today, Senate Republicans moved forward with their leadership transition, with Senator Garten officially becoming the President Pro Tempore, Senator Koch the Majority Leader, and Senator Tyler Johnson was elected to be the Caucus Chair.

The Senate was already facing considerable turnover following the May primaries, when six Republican incumbents lost their seats, including five committee chairs. Tuesday's results will bring additional changes to the membership of the chamber, with implications for committee leadership and assignments ahead of the 2027 session. 

Indiana Congressional Delegation 

Nationally, Democrats won control of both chambers of the United States Congress, a significant change that will affect President Trump's ability to advance his legislative priorities during the final two years of his term. Here in Indiana, eight incumbent members of Congress won reelection, while one closely watched race produced a major upset. 

J.D. Ford Defeats Victoria Spartz in Fifth Congressional District

One of the biggest surprises of the evening came in Indiana's 5th Congressional District, where Democratic State Senator J.D. Ford defeated Republican U.S. Representative Victoria Spartz. 

The result is particularly notable given that Spartz won reelection two years ago by more than 18 percentage points. The district includes much of Hamilton County and portions of Indianapolis' northern suburbs and north-central Indiana. A Republican has represented the district since 1993. 

Ford has served in the Indiana Senate since 2018 and will now head to Washington in January. Democrat Kristina Moorhead was elected to succeed him in Senate District 29, defeating former Republican State Senator John Ruckelshaus. 

Ford's victory changes the makeup of Indiana's congressional delegation from seven Republicans and two Democrats to six Republicans and three Democrats. 

Results Across Indiana's Nine Congressional Districts: 

• 1st Congressional District: Frank Mrvan (D) wins reelection. 

• 2nd Congressional District: Rudy Yakym (R) wins another term in Congress. 

• 3rd Congressional District: Marlin Stutzman (R) wins reelection. 

• 4th Congressional District: Jim Baird (R) wins reelection. 

• 5th Congressional District: J.D. Ford (D) defeats incumbent Representative Victoria Spartz (R). 

• 6th Congressional District: Jefferson Shreve (R) wins reelection. 

• 7th Congressional District: André Carson (D) comfortably wins another term in Congress. 

• 8th Congressional District: Mark Messmer (R) wins reelection. 

• 9th Congressional District: Erin Houchin (R) wins another term in Congress.